Pressure on the MILF (EDITORIAL)

THE DECLARATION by the Muslim separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) of a 10-day unilateral ceasefire as a first step toward resumption of peace negotiations was not exactly surprising. While the country's Catholic bishops and other peace advocates have been pressing the government to return to the negotiating table, a confluence of events has put much greater pressure on the secessionist group to do the same thing.

The military may claim most of the credit for forcing the rebel group to call for a cessation of hostilities. That would be an exaggeration. The renewed offensive that started in February has been anything but a smashing success, considering that 200 people have been killed since then, many of them non-combatants, and some 350,000 civilians have been driven away from their homes. The real pressure has come from other sources and in varied forms.

One is the substantial military and economic assistance pledged by the US government during the fruitful visit of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. This includes 30 helicopters and various military equipment and training as well as about 30 million dollars in economic projects linked to the peace process in Mindanao. At the very least, the MILF could be facing in the future a better-trained and better-equipped military and possibly a Muslim constituency that would be unhappy over lost economic opportunities.

On the diplomatic front, the MILF suffered a major setback when the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) invited Foreign Secretary Blas Ople to come as a "guest" to the foreign ministers' meeting in Tehran, Iran. It was the first time such an invitation was extended to the Philippine government by the influential organization, which used to frown at attempts by the government to present its side regarding its conflict with Islamic secessionist groups like the MILF and earlier the Moro National Liberation Front. That invitation could be read as a signal of the OIC's displeasure with the MILF, which has been blamed for the bombings in the cities of Davao and Koronadal and the raid in Siocon town in Zamboanga del Norte province that left 32 people dead.

Just as damaging to the image of the MILF is the growing body of evidence and testimony about its links with international terrorist organizations like Jemaah Islamiyah. Two of the accused in the bombing on the island resort of Bali, Indonesia, have admitted contacts with the MILF, with one of them claiming that he had trained some MILF fighters in Mindanao. A terrorist tag could turn it into a pariah in official circles as Islamic governments appear to have started cracking down on terrorist organizations.

Under these circumstances, it was probably just a matter of time before the MILF sued for peace. But while the MILF is certainly at a big disadvantage, it would be folly for the government to press it harder, as defense and military officials seem to be suggesting. Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes has rejected a temporary ceasefire, saying the MILF could use the lull in fighting to "regroup and reorganize" like it had done in the past. Major General Roy Kyamko, chief of the Southern Command, sees the ceasefire declaration as a "tactical move" forced upon the MILF by "heavy losses" in the field of battle. Nothing short of the surrender of those responsible for the recent attacks on civilian targets would make the military stop its operations, he said.

Under such terms, there can be no breakthrough in the search for peace. The highest leaders of the MILF are among those charged for the bombings in Davao and other violent incidents the government has labeled as acts of terrorism. Without them, with whom will the government be talking peace? And what kind of peace agreement will they produce?

It is ironic that the military would continue to talk tough and advice against welcoming peace overtures from the other side at this time. Only last Wednesday, the 90-day deadline set by their commander in chief for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to crush the Abu Sayyaf lapsed. And the top military officer in the Muslim-populated province of Sulu, where the Abu Sayyaf operates, had to admit that the AFP did not get the job done. If the military cannot finish off a band of kidnappers that counts no more than 300 members, it deludes itself if it thinks it can deliver the death blow to a secessionist movement with tens of thousands of armed followers.

The President has welcomed the MILF's ceasefire declaration as a "positive development," although she said she would like to see further proof of its "sincerity" and its leadership's capacity to enforce compliance among its members. Given a realistic time frame, that seems reasonable enough. Maybe the President should start trusting her own instincts more than the counsel of the many hawks around her.